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NFL computer perfect on Thursday; picks upsets in Week 3 betting
2013-09-26

It's the rest of the week that is giving the computer all the problems.

And its curious selections like picking the Indianapolis Colts to win outright in San Francisco that is messing with its record. The formula spit out a 20-11 win for the Colts, which would be the first time since 2002 that Indy won as a double-digit underdog.

So through two weeks and one game of Week 3, the NFL picks machine is 23-10 SU, but just 15-17-1 ATS. It has been terrific picking over-under winners, hitting at a 21-11-1 clip so far.

What else does it have to say about Week 3?

E.J. Manuel and the Buffalo Bills have passed the eye test so far this season, getting off to a 2-0 ATS start by giving the New England Patriots all they could handle in Week 1 and then upsetting the Carolina Panthers on a late touchdown drive last week.

But are they ready to win on the road, visiting the New York Jets as a 2.5-point underdog this Sunday?

The computer thinks so, predicting a narrow victory for the Bills with a calculated score of Buffalo 16.8, New York 16.3. The Jets are 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS after getting a cover in a losing effort against New England last Thursday night.

With Trent Richardson traded out of town and inexperienced quarterback Brian Hoyer under center, the Cleveland Browns have the lowest computer score projection on the board this week, projected to lose 10.2 to 14.8 to the Minnesota Vikings. A score like this one would go well under the posted total of 40.5

On the other side of the scoring spectrum, the Denver Broncos have sailed OVER the total in each of their first two games, beating Baltimore 49-27 and the New York Giants 41-23. The computers are projecting another offensive shootout this Monday night when the Broncos host the Oakland Raiders, projecting a score of Oakland 26.6 to Denver 42.3.

This total would easily crush the posted total of 48.5, and give Denver a cover at -14.5. But beware the Raiders, who are 6-1 ATS in their past seven trips to Mile High and who are 10-1 ATS in 11 recent division games on the road.

After starting the season off 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS with two close wins, the computers have the Houston Texans picking up their first ATS cover of the season this week. The Texans are a 2.5-point road favorite visiting the Baltimore Ravens, and are projected to win comfortably at 28.3 to 17.7.

The rest of the Week 3 computer picks from OddsShark.com. See the latest NFL spreads here at SBNation.

NY Giants (12.1) at Carolina (20)

Tampa Bay (13.9) at New England (17.6)

Atlanta (20.4) at Miami (27.8)

Houston (28.3) at Baltimore (17.7)

Arizona (19.8) at New Orleans (23)

Buffalo (16.8) at NY Jets (16.3)

St. Louis (22) at Dallas (25.7)

Oakland (26.6) at Denver (42.3)

Kansas City (34) at Philadelphia (22.9)

Cleveland (10.2) at Minnesota (14.8)

Jacksonville (3) at Seattle (26.9)

Indianapolis (20.4) at San Francisco (11.1)

Detroit (28.4) at Washington (14.6)

San Diego (23.2) at Tennessee (23.7)

San Francisco (13.9) at St. Louis (21.3)

Green Bay (28.1) at Cincinnati (25.8)

Chicago (20.5) at Pittsburgh (10.8)